Showing posts with label Inflation in India. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Inflation in India. Show all posts

Thursday, 4 August 2011

Learning lessons from Iran, Indian Government planning to remove subsidies on diesel. Elite car owners may have to shell out more for diesel

Lessons learned from Iran, Indian Government planning to remove subsidies on diesel.
Elite car owners may have to shell out more for diesel

Elite car owners may have to shell out more for diesel as fuel used in their cars if Indian Finance Minister Mr. Pranab Mukherjee accepts suggestions to tame inflation and control rising price of essential commodities.

Mr. Mukherjee while responding on a two-day debate in the Parliament (Lower House of Indian Parliament) on inflation and price rise, hinted that the Government of India may look at a dual pricing for diesel. Fifteen per cent of the diesel produced is consumed by passenger vehicles in India so the government might remove the subsidy on diesel for passenger cars.
The minister said, "High prices are there… Certain suggestions have come... but one thing to do... heavily tax those sectors which are not essential... out of 100 barrel of diesel… 10 per cent goes to industry... agriculture uses 12 per cent…. 8 per cent for power… 15 per cent for passenger cars where we can accept your suggestion and try work out that these sections are not subsidized…"

Because of huge difference in petrol and diesel prices, currently at Rs. 25 per litre, the share of diesel cars in overall passenger car sales has been increasing rapidly. Diesel cars currently account for 30 per cent of car sales and the analysts expect diesel car sales to hit 50 per cent by 2015.

In late June of this year, the petrol price has been hiked by Rs 5 taking the per litter cost of petrol is more than Rs 63 while diesel price prevailing at around Rs 38.

Business Today in its edition dated June 26, 2011 commented , “The reluctance of the government to increase the price of diesel has led to a strange situation - the demand for petrol cars is declining sharply. The argument that the common man will suffer if diesel prices are raised and hence only petrol should be made dearer is fallacious. There are at least 100 million motorcycle owners in India, a figure calculated on the basis of the last 15 years' sales. And despite four-stroke motorcycles in India offering incredible mileage, this price rise hurts users of bikes which have petrol engines a lot more than the middle class man driving the diesel-variant of the Maruti Swift”.

But, if the Government of India decides to increase the diesel price only at the petrol pumps (gas stations), it would only affect the elite class who can afford a car and can also afford to bear the additional burden of diesel price hike spearing the agricultural and industrial sections to continue to contribute to the nation’s growth.

The diesel price hike at petrol pumps would also not affect the common man if transportation sector is also waived off from this elite class. The increase of diesel price is having cascading impact on price rise of essential commodities. But if transportation sector has been kept out of this loop, there is no chance of price rise for essential commodities including food grains and perishable vegetables and fruits.

How to remove subsidies without hurting common man - Iran offered lessons. In Iran, prior to February 2011, a litre of petrol would cost the equivalent of Rs 4, while diesel would cost around 60 paise. Electricity was pegged at around 6 paise a unit (kWh). This made Iran one of the cheapest countries in the world by the cost of fuel and energy. All thanks to subsidies. But Iran has prepared a roadmap for itself. It has decided to phase out all subsidies over a five-year period. To minimise any shock on account of the increase in oil, gas and electricity prices, the first reduction of subsidies would have to be 20 per cent at the very minimum. However, Iran has managed to reduce subsidies by almost 50 per cent and with practically no protest from its teeming millions.

In November last year, former Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said that use of Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs) in countries like India is "criminal" adding the need for evolving an effective fuel policy regime to discourage the use of such vehicles that emit more carbons. "The luxurious growth of large-size vehicles like SUVs is really a growth of concern... use of vehicles like SUVs and BMW in countries like India is criminal," the minister commented which attracted a huge controversy.

Taking a cue from this line and forgetting the carbon emission from huge SUVs, it is true that these SUVs are consuming diesel and having fun which are subsidies from the tax payers money.

Monday, 1 August 2011

Inflation to pull down economic growth in India

Inflation in India has once again played crucial role to determine the economic growth of the country. The demon inflation has pulled down the economic growth from projected over 9 per cent to a mere 8.2 per cent. This has become evident in the recently published “Economic Outlook 2011 – 12” released by Dr C. Rangarajan, Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India.

Releasing the Economic Outlook in New Delhi on August 1, 2011, Dr. Rangarajan said that the agriculture sector which witnessed the growth at 6.6 per cent during 2010 – 11 would grow at the rate of 3 per cent during the current fiscal year. Apart from Agriculture, Industrial sector would see a projected growth at the rate of 7.1 per cent during this year while last year the growth was 7.9 per cent while the services sector grew at the rate of 9.4 per cent and has been projected at 10 per cent during this year.

“The projected growth rate of 8.2 per cent, though lower than the previous year, must be treated as high and respectable, given the current world situation,” Dr. Rangarajan commented.

Commenting on the boundless inflation, Dr. Rangarajan said that the headline inflation rate would continue to be at 9 per cent in the month of July-October 2011. There will be some relief starting from November and will decline to 6.5 per cent in March 2012. “Important role for fiscal policy to contain demand pressure and it need to ensure that fiscal deficit does not exceed the budgeted level,” he cautioned.

Here are some highlights of the report:

  • Economy to grow at 8.2 per cent in 2011-12
  • Agriculture grew at 6.6 per cent in 2010-11. Projected to grow at 3.0 per cent in 2011-12
  • Industry grew at 7.9 per cent in 2010-11. Projected to grow at 7.1 per cent in 2011-12
  • Services grew at 9.4 per cent in 2009-10. Projected to grow at 10.0 per cent in 2011-12
  • The projected growth rate of 8.2 per cent, though lower than the previous year, must be treated as high and respectable, given the current world situation.
  • Global economic and financial situation unlikely to improve
  • To keep the economy growing at 9 per cent, it is important to increase fixed investment rate
  • Investment rate projected at 36.4 per cent in 2010-11 and 36.7 per cent in 2011-12
  • Domestic savings rate as ratio of GDP projected at 33.8 per cent in 2010-11 and 34.0 per cent in 2011-12
  • The 2011 monsoon projected to be in the range of 90 to 96 per cent of Long Period Average. As a result farm sector output expected to grow at 3 per cent
  • The revised series (2004/05) for Index of Industrial Production shows an output growth pattern that is fairly different from what the old series (1993/94) had indicated.
  • The output growth was grossly underestimated by the old series in 2007-08 and overestimated in 2008-09 and 2009-10.
  • The impact of the global crisis on industrial output was much stronger than had been indicated by the old series
  • In 2010-11 the output growth was higher at 8.2 per cent against 7.8 per cent indicated by the old series.
  • Current Account deficit is $44.3 billion (2.6 per cent of GDP) in 2010-11 and projected at $54.0 billion (2.7 per cent of GDP) in 2011-12
  • Merchandise trade deficit is $ 130.5 billion or 7.59 of the GDP in 2010-11 and projected at $154.0 billion or 7.7 per cent of GDP in 2011-12
  • Invisible trade surplus is $ 86.2 billion or 5.0 per cent of the GDP in 2010-11 and projected at $100.0 billion or 5.0 per cent in 2011-12
  • Capital flows at $ 61.9 billion in 2010-11 and projected at $72.0 billion in 2011-12
  • FDI inflows projected at $35 billion in 2011/12 against the level of $23.4 billion in 2010-12
  • FII inflows projected to be $14 billion which is less than half that of the last year i.e $30.3 billion
  • Accretion to reserves was $15.2 billion in 2010-11. Projected at $18.0 billion in 2011-12
  • Inflation rate projected at 6.5 per cent in March 2012.

The headline inflation rate would continue to be at 9 per cent in the month of July-October 2011. There will be some relief starting from November and will decline to 6.5 per cent in March 2012.

  • Available food stocks to be liberally released
  • Important role for fiscal policy to contain demand pressure. Need to ensure that fiscal deficit does not exceed the budgeted level
  • RBI will have to continue to follow a tight monetary policy till inflation shows definite signs of decline
  • Achieving fiscal targets set in 2011/12 budget estimates to present a significant challenge
  • For 2011/12, budget estimates of fiscal deficit for Centre - 4.7 per cent; States- 2.1 per cent and consolidated fiscal deficit including off budget liabilities - 6.8 per cent
  • Government to redouble efforts to collect larger revenue, resolve cases to reduce tax arrears
  • Minimize avoidable expenditures and initiate measures to increase revenues
  • Resolve issues with states and introduce Goods and Services Tax
  • Reforms in power sector distribution system to limit the liabilities of state governments

Some key issues of concern:

Convergence of growth rates of states

An analysis of the recent data indicates that while most of the lower income states have shown stronger growth rates, several of the higher income states have also shown an increase

Current Account Deficit

Given our growth needs, a moderate trade deficit and CAD are inevitable. To finance the CAD, foreign investment flows need to be promoted. However CAD to be contained below 2.5% of the GDP

Power Sector

The India growth story inextricably linked to the power sector

Immediate policy interventions required for ensuring coal availability for the power plants, land acquisition and environmental clearances and revision of power tariff by states to reduce high AT&C losses

Increased focus on non conventional energy

Food Security

Need to grant the poor a legal entitlement to food through an appropriate legislative enactment

Availability of grain to be kept in mind while deciding legal entitlements

Reforms in PDS important to strengthen distribution. Computerization, introduction of smart cards and using unique identification numbers for the beneficiaries are important interventions.

Table 1: GDP Growth - Actual & Projected

At constant 2004/05 prices



Year-on-year rates of growth in per cent



ANNUAL RATES

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12





QE

Rev

Proj.


1

Agriculture & allied activities

-0.1

0.4

6.6

3.0


2

Mining & Quarrying

1.3

6.9

5.8

6.0


3

Manufacturing

4.2

8.8

8.3

7.0


4

Electricity, Gas & Water Supply

4.9

6.4

5.7

7.0


5

Construction

5.4

7.0

8.1

7.5


6

Trade, Hotels, Transport, Storage & Communication

7.5

9.7

10.3

10.8


7

Finance, insurance, real estate & business services

12.5

9.2

9.9

9.8


8

Community & personal services

12.7

11.8

7.0

8.5


9

Gross Domestic Product (factor cost)

6.8

8.0

8.5

8.2


10

Industry (2 + 3 + 4 + 5)

4.4

8.0

7.9

7.1


11

Services (6 + 7 + 8)

10.1

10.1

9.4

10.0


12

Non-agriculture (9 - 1)

8.2

9.4

8.9

9.0


14

GDP (factor cost) per capita

5.0

6.2

6.8

6.4



Some Magnitudes


15

GDP at factor cost - 2004/05 prices in Rs lakh crore (or Trillion)

41.6

44.9

48.8

52.8

16

GDP market & current prices in Rs lakh crore (or Trillion)

55.8

65.5

78.8

89.8

17

GDP market & current prices in US$ Billion

1,223

1,385

1,732

1,994

18

Population in Million

1,164

1,183

1,202

1,222

19

GDP market prices per capita current prices

47,975

55,384

65,517

73,460

20

GDP market prices per capita in current US$

1,051

1,171

1,441

1,632